The present study suggests that the fear of being primaried prompts members of Congress to change their behavior in ways that reduce the likelihood of it occurring and that increase the likelihood of prevailing in a contested primary, if a challenger actually emerges. The working theory is straightforward: the general phenomenon of contested primaries impacts individual members psychologically and causes them to continually adapt to the possibility of a primary challenge. Because the primary constituency is smaller than the general election constituency, individual incumbents have greater control over this electoral environment than they do over the general election environment. (In the larger electoral arena, a presidential candidate with substantial coattails or a nationalized, midterm election can overwhelm even an incumbent’s best efforts to hold their seat.)
